President Hassan Rouhani said, May 8, 2019, that it will begin keeping its excess uranium and heavy water from its nuclear program, setting a 60-day deadline for new terms to its nuclear deal with world powers before it will resume higher uranium enrichment. (IRANIAN PRESIDENCY OFFICE/AP)
IRAN ON WEDNESDAY SAID it will walk away from the international deal governing its development of nuclear materials and potentially nuclear weapons if it does not receive new terms for a new agreement within 60 days.
The threat regarding its stockpiles of excess enriched uranium and heavy water amounts to an ultimatum for the five countries and the European Union that remain a part of the landmark 2015 nuclear deal, brokered during the Obama administration but which President Donald Trump has taken steps to dismantle.
Unless the original signatories of the agreement are able to agree on a new arrangement that would lift new U.S. imposed sanctions on Iran’s oil and banking sectors, Tehran warns it will keep its excess stockpiles of materials used in nuclear reactors and would begin producing them at higher levels – something its foes, including Israel, have said they will not allow to happen.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani issued the threat in a live address on Wednesday, which marks one year since Trump withdrew the U.S. from the deal. The country’s foreign ministry sent letters describing the ultimatum to the chief diplomats of the other signatories – Germany, France, the U.K., China, Russia and the EU. The powers have remained in a precarious state of agreement with Iran during the past year regarding the terms of the deal and the economic benefits it allowed, while the Trump administration takes an increasingly hard line – one that has become more pronounced in recent days.
Fireworks launched by opponents of Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro land near Bolivarian National Guard armored vehicles loyal to Maduro, during an attempted military uprising in Caracas, Venezuela, Tuesday, April 30, 2019. Opposition leader Juan Guaido took to the streets with a small contingent of heavily armed troops in a call for the military to rise up. (AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos)
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“Once our demands are met, we will resume implementation of the ceased undertakings,” Iran’s National Security Council announced in a statement. “Otherwise, the Islamic Republic of Iran will stop compliance with its other undertakings in consequent phases.”
The statement pledged “firm and rapid reaction to any irresponsible measure,” including countries’ referring any subsequent situation to the U.N. Security Council or imposing new sanctions.
“I would like to warn this is not a bluff,” Ali Akbar Salehi, chief of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, said Wednesday, referring to Iran’s pledge to return to levels of nuclear enrichment approaching weapons grade. “I have kept my word whenever I’ve said something.”
Many world leaders – including officials from some of America’s closest allies – blame Trump for the precarious situation. They cited his decision to walk away from the deal and begin to impose new harsh sanctions against Iran, most recently limiting other countries that had begun to purchase its oil, and to designate one of Iran’s principal military branches, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as a terrorist organization.
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“Not only has Trump’s position of maximum pressure not delivered, it has not triggered Rouhani’s move toward less for less. Dangerous escalation,” Italian political scientist Nathalie Tocci, an aide to EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini, wrote in a tweet on Wednesday.
Most recently, national security adviser and noted Iran hawk John Bolton framed the expedited deployment of an aircraft carrier strike group already en route to the Middle East as a direct response to new threats Iran poses against U.S. troops and their allies in the region. The U.S. also plans to deploy a strategic bomber group.
Leonid Slutsky, chairman of the foreign affairs committee in the Russian State Duma, told reporters Wednesday than Iran’s withdrawal from the agreement was a direct result of the Trump administration’s recent actions. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was scheduled to meet with his Iranian counterpart later in the day to discuss what he considers the “unacceptable situation” exacerbated by the U.S.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang called “on all parties concerned to exercise restraint” and avoid escalation, saying the U.S. has “further aggravated” tensions regarding the Iran deal.
Analysts believe Tehran’s ultimatum amounts to a new strategy in an attempt to improve its situation now or pressure the other signatories of the deal and seek better terms from Trump’s eventual successor.
Iran likely believes it can exert pressure on Europe and China for greater economic assistance and improve its position were the U.S. to rejoin the deal in the future, says Ellie Geranmayeh, a senior policy fellow for Iran at the European Council on Foreign Relations. She adds that Iran’s latest actions don’t necessarily indicate a flagrant violation of its terms of the nuclear agreement – for example, Tehran hasn’t yet increased research and development on advanced nuclear reactors or denied access to international weapons inspectors.
“Bottom line: Iran [is] shifting from strategic patience to strategic action in accordance with its domestic politics and perception that U.S/Europe/China believe they can have [maximum] security while Iran cornered on all fronts,”, she wrote on Twitter.
Paul D. Shinkman, Senior National Security Writer